Tesla Semi (2023) Features, Design and Hardcore Testing. Take A Look:- Tesla has finally started delivering their semi-truck, even if it was 5 years after the initial reveal, it has finally been achieved.
Despite some people saying it would never be possible to drive a semi-truck with an 80,000 lb load distance of around 500 miles on one charge. But Tesla achieved it, not only that, they uploaded the entire video so you can see for yourself, as it is that hard to believe, but now difficult for anyone to doubt.
That is good to see that it is all possible. From here it’s about manufacturing or the pace of manufacturing, and how many can they make a year. The only number we have been given is that Tesla should have produced 50,000 by the end of 2024, as we were told on the earnings call.
Which is a lot more than I think any of us expected. I want to waste your time going over the specs, as I am sure you already know them. But basically, an electric semi truck is superior in every way to diesel, along with performance, simplicity, safety, and of course much lower cost, supposedly lower cost than a freight train, which makes it the lowest cost land transport, a big deal.
They do however require a huge amount of battery cells to work, enough for about 17 Model 3 standard ranges, which would make as much as about $200,000 profit. That is a lot of profit, especially when that’s possibly close to the actual price tag of the semi-truck.
Although that was the old pricing, I don’t believe we have heard the latest price updates, but some believe it to now be closer to $400,000, according to some people in the trucking industry. If so then, we that is a substantial profit.
We do estimate the battery to be closer to 1 MWh in size though, judging by the estimate of just under 2kWh consumed per mile. Well if we have 500 miles of range, and 2 kWh per mile, then that comes to 1 MWh battery. Which alone might cost around $130,000 just in cells.
As we know they are using 2170 cells from Giga Nevada. Why not 4680 cells? Well, 4680 is still not as energy-dense yet, due to 2170s using silicon in the anodes, which creates that additional energy density necessary.
On top of that the weight saving of a structural battery pack, being perhaps just a few hundred pounds, is pretty much negligible when the total weight is around 82,000 lbs. This is why it also makes sense to manufacture the vehicle there too, to keep everything local.
When you include the rest of the cost of the vehicle and battery pack, then $200,000 wouldn’t generate much profit. So, it is likely they will sell them for quite a bit more. But why not make 15 or so more cars for consumers instead? And increase market share for EVs.
Only 1% of vehicles are semi-trucks. Well, Elon tells us why, as despite accounting for 1% of vehicle sales, they account for 20% of vehicle emissions, and 36% of vehicle particulate emissions.
Due to the fact they run on diesel, are incredibly big and heavy, and are driven perhaps 7 times as much as passenger cars, all resulting in worse environmental damage. Thus in line with the mission.
And because they use so much fuel and are driven so much, then there is also likely to be a lot of ongoing profit generated from them with charging. CELLS Now you may be wondering, if Tesla is going to perhaps be making in the region of around 50,000 or so by the end of 2024, and each one has a battery of around a whole megawatt hour, then that is a lot of cells.
And the EV industry is still cell and battery constrained. So how will that work? Well, sometimes I like to look to see if I can find coincidences to give me answers. So here are some I have found. Giga Nevada has a run rate of around 35 to 40 GWh a year of 2170 cells.
Tesla might be making around 35,000 semi-trucks a year. Well 35,000 semi trucks with 1 MWh battery, is 35 GWh a year of cells. The Semi truck is using 2170 cells, and Giga Nevada makes about 35 GWh a year of 2170 cells.
Tesla has recently made some expansions on the site, but only minor, nothing large enough to increase the capacity of the cell production noticeably, probably more likely for production space of the semi-truck.
So there we go. Although that would essentially limit production to around 35 to 40,000 semi trucks a year, and Tesla isn’t going to expand more 2170 production in any major way.
But possibly by about 2025, Panasonic have their own 4680 cells mastered, and perhaps may replace the 2170 production in Nevada with 4680 and increase cell production there.
Also remember, it’s only the 500-mile semi-truck that needs an MWh battery, there will be the 300-mile version too, which could only be around 600 kWh battery. Anyway, this makes me think more that Tesla will end the 2170 version of the Model 3 in Fremont, the same with the Model Y.
The Model 3 will end up being some sort of iron cathode mid-range, and the Model Y will be the 4680 version and only made in Texas. I think the Model 3 is underrated, why? Because it’s too expensive.
Why is it too expensive? Well only relatively compared to the Model Y, due to the further advanced manufacturing it has to reduce cost. But the cost reduction potential is higher on the Model 3, and it can use fewer cells, or lower cost, less energy-dense cells as it is smaller and lighter.
So Tesla can increase range, and reduce cost for the Model 3, and it will sell very well, hence why it could be made at Fremont and the Model Y in Texas. I think we will see a major reshuffling of cells in the future with Tesla as each cell finds its correct application and purpose.
Robotaxi They show us a slide of how Tesla is trying to cover all major forms of terrestrial transport, and we see a car covered, similar to the one on Battery Day. Except the label has changed. On battery day the covered vehicle was called the $25,000 Passenger Car, it’s now referred to as the Robotaxi.
I think we need to start believing that there may not be a low-cost affordable compact for sale to customers, no matter what fund managers or stock analysts tell you.
There has been no mention of such a product since Battery Day, and Elon even said in a past earnings call, that don’t think of a low-cost Tesla to purchase but thought about the low cost per mile traveled. I think if this Robotaxi is for sale, then it’s going to be over $100,000, and nothing close to $30,000.
It’s far too much value to offer at such a low price. I think there is only one vehicle coming soon, and it’s just a compact Robotaxi. This is also the vehicle that Tesla’s designer, Franz was also talking about, that is his favorite Tesla design yet.
As a Tesla consumer, you may be frustrated, but as an investor, it’s very good news. SEMI I never thought I would ever really be this interested or excited about semi trucks, but as it’s a Tesla product, it certainly piqued my interest, and it’s great for the mission, and likely also going to be great for the company and stock price.
I mean there are Tesla lovers out there that want to buy this Semi truck. My dad even says he wants one, and before Tesla, not in a million years would he have considered a semi-truck. Nor would he have ever bout a pickup truck either, yet he placed his deposit on a Cybertruck the day it was launched.
But I have to say, the thing that blew my mind the most from this event, and got me the most excited, was when they were talking about the charging. Now we had already heard that the V4 charger for the Semi truck could be about 1.5 MW, and we are shown that the V4 charger is more than 1 MW.
And supposedly it might take about just half an hour to get a 70% charge for the semi-truck. And V4 chargers have high-voltage conductors immersed in coolant return tubes. Liquid-cooled so you don’t need a huge cable.
Three times the current density. It’s pretty amazing, I don’t even understand half of it. This is key for high-power applications like the semi-truck. But my favorite part of the whole event, was when Elon says, that this will be used for the Cybertruck too.
Now bear in mind that the semi-truck is a 1 MWh battery, so it can handle a faster charge, whereas Cybertruck is only going to be about 100 kWh battery. Yet by the sounds of it will be able to use a 1 MW charger.
This might be to do with the tabless cells, probably a higher voltage for the Cybertruck battery, perhaps 1000V. I mean this is what it sounded like. It would be crazy. You might think it means the Cybetruck could get a full charge in just 6 mins or so if that was the case.
But the fast charging is not consistent. A good example is trying to pour water into a wine bottle with a bucket. You can fill it up to about 70% or so easily enough, after that it gets slower. But still, perhaps you can get a 70% charge in just a few minutes.
That would be another massive selling point for the Cybetruck if so. I mean I am just inferring what was said here, perhaps it will be limited somewhat, but on the other hand, why else would have Elon said it? I sure can’t wait for the full Cybertruck specs.
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